Friday, 28 December 2007

NZD/USD and NZD/JPY

Both these pairs look to trade higher yet.
So have added to long NZD/USD position at 0.7700 and added to long NZD/JPY position at 88.00.
NZD/USD should have a test of 0.8000 in the weeks ahead.
NZD/JPY should have a test of 91.00 in the weeks ahead.

Will review if 0.7400 NZD/USD and 84.00 NZD/JPY are broken on the downside.

Thursday, 27 December 2007

Saturday, 1 December 2007

NZD/JPY Trade - Still in there!

This trade has had it's share of surprises. Have added to it and reduced it as the markets have fluctuated.

The sub prime mess and the impact on the US economy has scared off a lot of the carry trade interest. So the NZD/JPY goes down and at one point was around 78.00 again.

But high NZD yields have driven the cross back up to 91.00 as well, so this cross has traded in a wide range over the last few months and is now back to the level it was when I last commented on it and am still in profit.

Am still of the view that the NZD/USD will breach 0.8000 again this year.
The NZD/JPY will also test higher, target is around 100, but probably next year.
Will look to acquire more on moves into the 80.00- 82.00 area.

Friday, 21 September 2007

NZD/JPY Trade

Now had my bought NZD sold JPY carry trade a month.
Did it at 79.50 see here
Not looking too bad at 85:30 today!
Still think this cross heads back to 90.00, and the NZD/USD will have a go at 0.8000 again.
Watch this space!

Here’s where all the finance company deposits are flying to:

Dutch bank Rabobank Nederland [RABN.UL] said it would nearly double the amount of its Tier 1 perpetual securities issue to NZ$900 million ($643 million) due to strong demand.

It said the margin on the securities had been set at 76 basis points over the one- year swap rate, following a tender among institutional investors last Friday. The issue -- increased from an initial NZ$400 million -- is the largest ever for a non-governmental organisation in the New Zealand market, the company said.

The increase comes amid adverse global credit conditions, which saw New Zealand's Yellow Pages Group scrap a NZ$100 million bond issue earlier in the month.

The strong demand has been partly attributed to nervousness about investing in local finance companies, five of which have shut their doors in the past four weeks as small investors have stopped lending or demanded their money back.

Still in demand

Offshore investors love us… Do you want proof?

Here it is -Offshore holdings of NZ govt debt rose in Aug.

The proportion of non-resident holdings of New Zealand government securities rose to 67.6 percent at the end of August, from 63.4 % a month earlier, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand said. Offshore holdings of bonds increased to 73% from 69.8% while offshore holdings of Treasury bills rose 12.6% from 8%.

And here's another:

EBRD to sell NZ$522 mln Uridashi bond

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development [DBRD.UL] will sell a NZ$522 million ($369.9 million) Uridashi bond, Daiwa Securities said
The bonds, to be issued on Oct. 3, will carry a 6.85% coupon. The sales period runs from Sept. 21 to Sept. 26, with a maturity date of Sept. 24, 2009. The EBRD is rated triple A by Moody's Investors Service, Standard & Poor's and Fitch.

Friday, 7 September 2007

More Offshore Investment

Offshore investors continue to be attracted to New Zealand. Here’s another investor story:

SYDNEY, Sept 6 (Reuters) - The Nordic Investment Bank (NIB) has priced its NZ400 million ($276 million) 3-year Kauri bond debut, a joint lead said on Thursday. A Kauri bond is a bond sold by a foreign issuer in New Zealand.

NIB is owned by Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway and Sweden. It gives priority to funding investments that boost economic co-operation between these countries.

Hard to see the NZD/USD staying down with money still coming in at this rate. Word on the street is that a large US bank was selling NZDs on behalf of a hedge fund over the last few days. All done now though.

Still see major currencies range-trading as the sub-prime fall out works it’s way through the markets.

NZD should see some support coming through as markets re-focus on the Monetary Policy Statement from the Reserve Bank next week.