Friday, 21 March 2008

Euro update

Added another 1m Euro and bought USD at 1.5600 yesterday. So total position is now short Euro 3m long USD at an average of 1.5160.

Still well in loss, but I believe the USD is oversold and the Euro still has a number of issues ahead of it as the sub prime losses spread to European banks.

Will add to AUD long position if 0.8900 is seen in next few days.
Still waiting for good levels to short NZD against the AUD.

Thursday, 6 March 2008

EUR/USD, now 1.5330 spot.

Just sold a further 1m Euro and bought USD at 1.5330, making the position now short EUR2m long USD at an average of 1.4940.

Will review again if 1.5500 is seen, but still expect bad news to hit Europe as the sub prime mess rolls on. The US banking scene has been up front (more or less) on their losses. Europe has a long way to go, and the markets are not yet factoring in bad news from Europe.

When Europe goes, it will be a hard fall.

Watch this space.

Saturday, 1 March 2008

Position Update

Here are the trades I am active in:


Current rate 83.30

Decided discretion was the better part of valour, so cut the position out. Will re- assess in March or if below 80.00 is seen.

Cashed out:
Long NZD1.5m (82.90 average) at 85.00 yesterday, for a gain of NZD37,058 (not counting carry interest).


Current rate 0.8000

The NZD/USD dropping whilst the USD is weak is not a good look, and looked toppy, so closed the position out.

Cashed out:
Long NZD1.0m (0.7500 average) at 0.8100 yesterday, for a gain of NZD74,000 (not counting carry interest).

Long USD short 1m Euro at 1.4550

Current rate 1.5200: loss

Waiting for bad news on the Euro to run the EUR/USD back below 1.4000.
If 1.5300 is seen, I will double the USD Long position.

Long AUD1m short USD at 0.8720

Current rate 0.9330: Gain

Expect test of 0.9500 this year.

Total Gains :

Next trade:
Looking to sell NZD1m buy AUD on a move into the 0.8800 area.