Wednesday, 22 August 2007

Calm returns....for now

NEW YORK, Aug 20 (Reuters) - Calm returned slowly to financial markets on Monday, but there were lingering signs that credit problems persist despite policy-makers' insistence that the global economic growth would remain solid.

The Federal Reserve on Friday cut the rate at which it lends to banks to defuse the growing crisis in credit markets and encouraged more borrowing, particularly by big banks worried about their exposure to the beleaguered U.S. mortgage market. Deutsche Bank reportedly borrowed funds directly from the Federal Reserve on Friday, although it was unclear how much, the Financial Times reported on Monday.

However, the broader credit market seemed far from normal, particularly in the housing sector, where prices are falling and defaults are rising. "Investors' confidence in the mortgage financing space is not doing well," Larry Goldstone, chief operating officer of Thornburg Mortgage Inc, said in an interview with CNBC television on Monday.

In order to meet funding obligations, Thornburg said it has sold $20.5 billion of assets and reduced short-term borrowings by an equivalent amount. Adding to the uncertainty among investors, Fannie Mae, the largest source for U.S. home loans, said it will skip its monthly benchmark note issuance in August for the first time since May 2006.

Away from the trading rooms of Wall Street, policy-makers around the world struck a sanguine tone about the impact of market volatility on the global economy, even after the Fed said on Friday that the risks of the U.S. economy slowing have grown "appreciably."

Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty told reporters on Monday that it would take "some time" for the turmoil in credit markets to be resolved, but that the fundamentals of Canada's economy remain strong.

Germany's Bundesbank said the outlook for the global economy remained positive despite recent market tension, which represented a "welcome normalization," albeit an abrupt one. "Nevertheless, the risks for the global economy have increased with the correction process in the U.S. property market," the German central bank said in its monthly report.

In the wake of the market turmoil, investors have sharply altered their forecasts for monetary policy. They expect the Fed, which added another $3.5 billion on Monday in short-term liquidity, to cut its key fed funds target rate and are no longer pricing in rate increases from the Bank of England. More than half of U.S. primary dealer banks polled by Reuters predict the Federal Open Market Committee will lower the fed funds rate at its Sept. 18 meeting, or even earlier.

The European Central Bank said it would again allot more funds than strictly necessary at its weekly tender, but aimed to reduce surplus liquidity in the short-term euro money market gradually as conditions normalize.

Australia's central bank also injected a sizable amount of liquidity into the banking system, seeking to temper upward pressure on some short-term money market rates.

But few investors are confident all the troubles stemming from the U.S. home loan market have yet seen the light of day, and they fear further market turmoil could cut growth.

Richard Shelby, a member of the U.S. Senate's Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, said banks would increase their mortgage rates in the coming weeks, exacerbating tight credit. "I think it will get worse before it gets better," Shelby said in Brussels. "There will be firms that will not survive. I don't think we should bail them out."


Anonymous said...

This does not make me calm:

"currently 8.25 per cent, plus a margin of 100 basis points (1 percentage point)"

so thats more than the OCR, why would you use it unless you were in trouble?



Kiwi Trader said...

Registered Banks can borrow at the OCR, and it is virtually unlimited.

The Overnight Reverse Repo Facilities (ORRF) are being made available to wider parties, providing they sign a repo agreement and can provide security. The security range has been expanded somewhat, so it will provide liquidity for those who have invested in those securities but don't want to sell them.

Anyway that's why the rate is higher, because they can't get OCR rates as they are not registered banks.

But agree it is still pretty limited.