Sunday, 24 August 2008

Latest Currency Positions

The USD looks to have stopped gaining for the present, with the markets taking more note of US centric troubles. The Euro and Yen began to strengthen on the hourly charts and that caused me to place take-profit orders if the US weakened too much. These were done last week and so have taken some profits, still keeping a Euro 1m position.

Still think that global growth is falling faster around the world than in the US, and that US interest rates must go back up again. The bigger trend is for a stronger USD, so will look for opportunities to again buy USDs on weakness.

Here are the trades I am currently active in:

NZD/JPY
Square

NZD/USD
Square

EUR/USD
Long USD short 1m Euro at average of 1.5160

Current rate 1.4775: Gain

Cashed out:Long USD (1.5160 average) short Euro 2m at 1.4780, for a gain of USD76,000 (@0.7100 NZD107,042) (not counting carry interest).

Comment:
Immediate target 1.4500, then 1.4000. Above 1.5000 requires rethink again.

USD/JPY
Square

Cashed out:
Long USD2m (107.50 average) at 109.50, for a gain of JPY4,000,000
(@78.00 NZD51,282) (not counting carry interest).

AUD/USD
Square

NZD/AUD
Long NZD short AUD1m at 0.7937

Current rate 0.8200: Gain

Comment:
Target 0.8500, as the AUD/USD will be sold due to falling commodity prices, and the NZD/USD will fall slower and maybe stabilise and move higher due to food prices remaining strong. (people still have to eat!)

Total banked gains to date this year:
NZD527,324.00

2 comments:

Parch said...

Any update? :)
Seems like going square on NZD/AUD, NZD/USD was unlucky if not...

Kiwi Trader said...

Sorry, been a bit busy this week with all the currency moves!

Have added to short Euro positions again and am still long NZD against the AUD.

Basically its a resource issue. I can only have so many positions up at once, given that I generally trade in 1 million lots, so it chews up a lot of capital.

I was looking at being short NZD, but being short Euro has made more money with less overall risk, for a similar capital committment.

Anyway, soon time to buy NZD's, as maybe Bollard won't have the stomach to cut again next week.

Will update positions later tonight.