AUD/USD

Bought AUD1m sold USD today at 0.6850. This time I will hang on to it for a while!

Position Update

Did not realise that it was January when I last posted this!!

Anyway, here are the trades I am active in:

USD/JPY
Long USD 3m short Yen at 103.10 average.

Current rate: 97.75

Current: loss

Comment:
Looking for a rally up through 100.00 in April.

Extra background
Short USD3m freeze trade taken against JPY at average of 96.97 closed at 89.63, generating gain of USD245,676.67, NZD423,580.47 (not counting carry interest).

NZD/JPY
Long NZD 2m short JPY at average of 54.54

Current rate 56.20

Current: Gain

Comment:
I am comfortable with carry trades again. Will add more if a solid break above 0.6000 is seen in the NZD/USD, 100.00 in the USD/JPY or if 55.00 is seen in the NZD/JPY.

EUR/USD

Square

Current rate 1.3550

Comment:
Still can’t make my mind up on EUR/USD. I could see it go either way, so best to stay out of it.

AUD/USD

Square

Current rate 0.6930

Cashed out:
Long AUD1m (0.6425) short USD at 0.6600, for a gain of USD17,500.00 @0.5300 NZD33,018.87 (not counting carry interest).

Comment:
I am still watching the CRB index closely, and if this starts to point higher, I will re-instate position in the AUD/USD. But needs to break up through 0.7100 and sustain it to be much more confident.

Also like the AUD/JPY carry trade, so will look to build a position if we see a dip to 66.00.

NZD/USD
Square

Current rate: 0.5750

Comment:
I cashed out my long NZD2m position taken at 0.5668 at par. Think the NZD looks a bit overdone but still want to buy on weakness. Will wait for the next dip. If we break above 0.6000 will have to get involved anyway.

Previous balance: NZD1,475,315.47
Plus AUD gains of NZD33,018.87

Total gains banked since August 2007:

NZD1,508,334.34

NZD/USD Update

Closed out long 2m NZD at 0.5668 at break even at 0.5668. Will re-establish long lower down on the correction lower. Still prefer being long overall, and do not want to be short at all.

AUD/USD update

Apologies for lack of activity recently but have been busy with conferences and client needs.

Have taken profit on long AUD position at 0.6600. Think that equities are overdone at these levels, and I'm still very wary about the current Euro strength.

Still like being long AUD/USD, but I think I can re-enter in the low 0.6400's again.

Will update on all positions tomorrow if I get time.

AUD/USD

Following RBA decison today and break above 0.6400, decided to go long AUD1m against USD at 0.6425. Review levels 0.6250/6550.