Thursday, 26 March 2009

Position Update

Did not realise that it was January when I last posted this!!

Anyway, here are the trades I am active in:

USD/JPY
Long USD 3m short Yen at 103.10 average.

Current rate: 97.75

Current: loss

Comment:
Looking for a rally up through 100.00 in April.

Extra background
Short USD3m freeze trade taken against JPY at average of 96.97 closed at 89.63, generating gain of USD245,676.67, NZD423,580.47 (not counting carry interest).

NZD/JPY
Long NZD 2m short JPY at average of 54.54

Current rate 56.20

Current: Gain

Comment:
I am comfortable with carry trades again. Will add more if a solid break above 0.6000 is seen in the NZD/USD, 100.00 in the USD/JPY or if 55.00 is seen in the NZD/JPY.

EUR/USD

Square

Current rate 1.3550

Comment:
Still can’t make my mind up on EUR/USD. I could see it go either way, so best to stay out of it.

AUD/USD

Square

Current rate 0.6930

Cashed out:
Long AUD1m (0.6425) short USD at 0.6600, for a gain of USD17,500.00 @0.5300 NZD33,018.87 (not counting carry interest).

Comment:
I am still watching the CRB index closely, and if this starts to point higher, I will re-instate position in the AUD/USD. But needs to break up through 0.7100 and sustain it to be much more confident.

Also like the AUD/JPY carry trade, so will look to build a position if we see a dip to 66.00.

NZD/USD
Square

Current rate: 0.5750

Comment:
I cashed out my long NZD2m position taken at 0.5668 at par. Think the NZD looks a bit overdone but still want to buy on weakness. Will wait for the next dip. If we break above 0.6000 will have to get involved anyway.

Previous balance: NZD1,475,315.47
Plus AUD gains of NZD33,018.87

Total gains banked since August 2007:

NZD1,508,334.34

2 comments:

thelonelytrader said...

I've just shorted USDJPY again at 100. But I see it going to 103.50 so you'll have an opportunity to evaluate things soon from a position of strength -- at least I hope so! You deserve to win big after giving us those pictures of Katherine.

I will short USDJPY all the way to 110 and short it hard. I am also long EURUSD, as you know, but just shorted it as well. So I guess I'm in a bit of a spot, but they are timed on different time horizons so I might pull it off.

Interesting days, what?

Kiwi Trader said...

Hi LT

I am just happy to be looking at possibly breaking even on the short Yen trade!!
I got out of jail by going long Yen in the freeze trade and that saved my bacon on the overall Yen positions.
But as you know I am pretty dark on the Yen overall, and I still expect it to continue to weaken against the USD, as equilibrium is restored.

But certainly interesting days alright. I think the AUD and the NZD are a bit overdone up here, so will probably go square this week in AUD/USD and NZD/JPY.

Just writing my weekly report to clients, and it does look like the world is a better place, sentiment wise if not all data wise.

The rallies in shares are impressive. Let's see if they can be sustained through the earnings season!

Hope to post new blonde tonight if I get the time!

KT