Sunday, 21 June 2009

Outstanding positions update

Here are the trades I am active in:

Long AUD 3,735,990.04 short JPY at 82.79 average.

Current rate: 77.60

Current: Loss by 519 points.

By buying AUD I have converted this trade from a crappy USD/JPY deal to a AUD/JPY deal. See post here. Now waiting for the AUD to react to commodity moves. Target is 85.00 enroute to 105.00.

Extra background:
Sold USD3m and bought AUD at 0.8030, thus making the USD/JPY trade long AUD3,735,990.04 short JPY at 82.79.

Long NZD 3m short JPY at average of 57.23.

Current rate: 61.82

Current: Gain 459 points.

I remain comfortable with carry trades with the NZD/JPY up over 40% this year! Happy with the current exposure.


Current rate: 1.3940

Overall I see the USD weakening considerably due to quantitative easing pressures. So if pressed I would go long euro. But see more profit in other trades at present, so will not commit the capital.

Back to square

Current rate: 1.6504

Cashed out:
Long GBP1m (1.5050) short USD at 1.5690, for a gain of USD64,000 (at 0.6150) NZD104,065.04 (not counting carry interest).

Definitely took profit too early, but I needed my limit resources elsewhere.

Long AUD2m short USD at 0.7312.

Current rate: 0.8060

Current: Gain 748 points.

With oil in demand, and commodities generally pressured higher, I remain comfortable being long AUD. Happy with the current exposure.

Long NZD2m short USD at .6241.

Current rate: 0.6422
Current : Gain 181 points.

Now that the downgrade is off the agenda, and interest rates look to have stopped falling, there is nothing holding the NZD/USD down. Target 0.6500 enroute to 0.7000. Happy with the current exposure.

Unrealised gains NZD200k (AUD/JPY –312k, NZD/JPY +223k, AUD/USD +232k, NZD/USD +56K).

Previous balance: NZD1,638,800.86
Plus GBP/USD gains of NZD104,065.04
Total gains banked since August 2007:



peterquixote said...

Jeez dude, I just had a look at that graph them $AUD Oz against the yen thing, it is dramatic,

jesuscheung said...

hi kiwi trader

what do you think of RBA trying short their currency?

"The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is reported to have sold the most A$'s in the month of May, since February 2004! Now, go back to May and recall the move in A$'s... The currency gained almost 10% in the month... So, the A$ would have gained even more if the RBA had not sold A$1.4 Billion A$'s in the month!"

Anonymous said...

Looking good Kiwi. Very good indeed. Wish I had something similar to your positions in NZD. I definitely cut my position too early.

Kiwi Trader said...

Peter, yes the AUD/JPY uptrend is impressive. It may be tested in the weeks ahead,but still think it will move higher in the long run, target 105.00!

Jesus, the RBA intervene all the time. They make good money out of it! As they don't profess to try and change the trend, just "smooth" the currency moves, they can never be wrong as they can wait forever. They were selling AUD's at 0.9000-0.9500 and buying them back at 0.6000-0.6500. Now selling again at 0.8100-0.8200.
Really proves the point that if you are patient and can wait forever cashflow wise, the market will come back to you.

LT, I am a bit twitchy about the current pullback, esp if commodities take a big hit this week. Will ride it out, but the pullback, if it is serious, could gain speed this week.

Kiwi Trader said...

Jesus, you are right, the AUD would have gained more if the RBA was not selling!

Lets see if the AUD can rally this week, in the face of commodities under some pressure. A break below 0.7800 would not be a good look.