Sunday, 28 February 2010

EUR/USD new deal

Bought EUR1,000,000 sold USD at 1.3570 on Friday morning.

Tough decision, given that so many are convinced that the Euro is toast. But I think that the fall from 1.5100 to 1.3445 levels is probably enough. Everyone is short the Euro, with the result that there are no more serious sellers left.

I have also heard rumours that Chinese and Russian central banks are buyers of Euro in the 1.3400-1.3500 area.

Anyway, we will see what happens over the next few weeks.

Anyone agree with me? Or are you all convinced that I have finally lost it?


Anonymous said...

i think euro's downmove is done, im also long targtting 1.4

jesuscheung said...

if the euro is that bad, it had to be the worst. but it had actually been outperform the pounds all this time, so the euro isn't doomed indeed. in fact, i am also long euro, and even more long the pounds if oversold means anything anymore

Kiwi Trader said...

I think the Euro is probably oversold, with a rally back to 1.4000 likely.

But my track record in the Euro is patchy, which is why I tend to ignore it, and right now, I get cold feet quickly.

At this stage the market thinks the US is seen as a better bet. I think that is wrong, but the market sentiment remains strongly in favour of the USD and anti Europe.

So I will leave the Euro alone at this stage.