Monday, 14 September 2009

Have booked profits on some trades today.

Have taken profit as follows:

AUD/USD Long AUD2m short USD at 0.7312.
Closed at 0.8610

Gain of 1298 points.

NZD/USD Long NZD2m shortUSD at .6241.
Closed at 0.7010

Gain of 769 points.

EUR/USD Long EUR1m short USD at 1.4465
Closed at 1.4550.

Gain of 85 points.

Still have AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY carry trades.

Will update on gains to date etc tomorrow if I get time.


thelonelytrader said...

Well done Kiwi. What do you think about the general USD position at 3 months, 6 months and one year? I'm beginning to think I have to start protecting my exposure on the short EURUSD trade now. To some extent, I've already done this by getting into AUD and NZD via JPY only because I've been wary of a USD carry trade scenario. (And I've taken a small EURUSD long, but looking for a small profit target around 14700.) So far these trades seem to be holding up, but thinking it is foreseeable that EURUSD -- which is now weighted just a bit more than AUDJPY and NZDJPY together -- will be screaming higher sooner rather than later and my forecast of 13100/200 isn't going to materialize. On the other hand, AUDJPY and NZDJPY won't have appreciated as much and as vols increase, I may actually be carrying quite a large unrealized loss in two of my accounts. (They won't exceed 12% of capital altogether...but admit there is some risk that it could be more.) The AUD and NZD carries aren't earning money, but rather mitigated the negative carry of the EURUSD situation. So I'm essentially upside down a little but "frozen", as it were, and looking for positions where I can flip my exposure or at least wind it down a bit.

Wish me luck! I think we have some big moves coming before the end of the year. Just not sure which direction they will be in.

Kiwi Trader said...

Howdy Lonely Trader!
Big picture: USD to weaken across the board as everyone moves out of dollars. (you know all the reasons!)

Small picture: Everyone knows about the big picture!- Everyone is short USD'S!!!

So I have taken profits in short USD trades, as I think there will be a correction as everyone thinks the same at the moment.

Every commentary I read and CNBC is all calling the USD lower. Hmmmm maybe everyone is short USD's?

Time to not be short! I would not be long USDs though, best to be square, or at least looking for better levels to get short.

So looking to re-enter long NZD at 0.6800ish and long AUDs at 0.8200ish.

On the Euro, I wonder why we are not at 1.4800 by now, given the break out. Maybe everyone is short USDs and there are no more major sellers?

So I am suspicious of these moves, and a correction back to 1.4200 would not surprise. A move above 1.4700 means I am wrong!

We need a good clean out before the euro can seriously test 1.5000.

Not sure if that is any help. If you need more, sing out!

peterquixote said...

Extremely interesting dude, why did you sell out $NZD and $AUD so soon,
America is shagged dude,
but a profit is a profit,
good work,

peterquixote said...

Would you be prepared to post proof of your trades dude,
no answer means you can not,

peterquixote said...

17 September 09.

I am still wondering what you know, and I do not,
Apart from your taste in girls of course.
We are on our way to $NZ 0.75 cents against $USA dude, that is unless PM NZ John Key steps in, and I wouldn't be surprised if we do get currency regulation,.
Shades of Muldoon in the eighties.

Answer here dude, be brave,

Kiwi Trader said...

I think the USD is oversold. There will be a correction and so I took profits and banked some of the gains, leaving the carry trades in place. Markets do not move in a straight line, and I am concerned that the USD will strengthen in the weeks ahead, if only because everyone is short!

I will look to get long AUD and NZD again on the correction, which will occur as night follows day!

As far as trading gains and losses go, if you had followed my trades and done as I did, anyone could have made the same gains, as my suggestions were right!

I see no point in proving my trades as being correct is proof enough. Besides, I am not selling anything here, so I have no point to prove at all!

I could just as easily have done these trades and told no-one!